Johnny Manziel dazzles on the field with brilliant performances, like his 5 touchdown, 562 total yard game against Alabama. He's probably the most exciting player in college football, and he deserved the Heisman he won last year as the best player. However, I have yet to see anything that makes me think he'll have any measure of success in the NFL.
He has a strong arm. Great. There have been countless strong armed QBs who have failed miserably in the NFL. Manziel possesses the physical talents of an NFL QB. And he can even run, which is a bonus. Although he's also short (listed at 6' 1" but I'm not so sure about that). So that scram-bility is countered by the inability to see the field when surrounded by the behemoths of the NFL.
The height issue is minor, so forget about that. After all, Michael Vick is 6' and he's done okay in the NFL.
When I see Manziel make plays against college players, like he did against 'Bama this past weekend, I see a scrambler who takes advantage of defenses that don't contain the edge. Those reverse-field lanes won't be open for Manziel in the NFL. Bigger, faster, smarter defensive players will keep him much more contained than college defenses.
I see Manziel throwing a jump ball to 6' 5" Mike Evans, who is in single coverage against a small CB who doesn't have the awareness to turn around and play the ball. Corners that vulnerable are rarities in the NFL. Even the small ones know when to turn and jump to disrupt the play.
Then there's his decision-making. He seems more interested in making the big flashy play and not the smart play. Here's a highlight-reel throw that only he could make:
That's a great play, but a horrible decision. In a 14-14 game you blindly heave a ball downfield? You risk a turnover (and a return) just for a first down?
It worked, but I wasn't impressed. It reminded me of Brett Favre at his most moronic. And then seeing how impressed Manziel was with himself at making a lucky play, that revealed a great deal about Manziel's personality. What showed even more of that personality was his end zone interception 4 plays later, when he tried to make the difficult-but-amazing play instead of the easy play that was open.
Not only is Manziel willing to take stupid risks, he actively seeks them. Because that's how he gratifies himself. He builds his ego by taking risks and making big, flashy plays. He's cocky, not confident. Confidence withstands adversity, cockiness constantly seeks justification.
His off-field decision making is also questionable. I don't care about the partying or the sex or the drinking. If I were the QB at A&M, I'd be enjoying my share of T&A as well. But Manziel publicizes it. He revels in it. He broadcasts what he does. And that's not a desirable trait.
Why motivates him to be so public about his private life?
Then there's his exit to the Manning Passing Academy. I don't care about his going out in New Orleans and drinking. Again, it's his life, live it up. But if you commit to something, then do it. He committed to an off-season academy and didn't follow through. And if you want to go out and party, then get away with it. Don't put yourself in a position to get caught. He was an idiot for thinking he'd get away with it.
As much as other athletes like Gronkowski party, they don't let it impact their commitments. Manziel is more like a Tyler Seguin type. He can't put the partying on hold, even for a few days. It's part of the massive ego he's built. And when criticized or questioned, he becomes spiky and defensive of his lifestyle.
For now, his on-field performances make his off-field activities a moot point. But at some point he will want to join the NFL. He will have to take that leap that all college players take. He'll go from being the big fish in the small pond to the minnow in the ocean.
How will he adjust? What will challenge him to make himself better? Guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers all found a challenge that they used as motivation. Peyton was challenged by his family, Brady by his 6th round selection, Rodgers by being stuck behind Favre.
The QBs that fail in the NFL are the ones that don't face challenges. They cruise on talent and standard effort. Then they get to the League, and they get baffled by the challenge. They have no idea how to approach it. Ryan Leaf, Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart, Joey Harrington, etc.
Johnny Manziel lives in a world in which he is the center, he is the best, and everything he does is right. That works for him at A&M. And it works for the Aggies. However, that kind of attitude doesn't work for a rookie QB in the NFL.
I'd prefer AJ McCarron, who is more confident than cocky. Who looks for the smart play not the big play. Who has been challenged by Nick Saban to be the best he can be for the best team in the country. I'd give Manziel another Heisman over McCarron, I'd draft McCarron over Manziel.
But if the NFL doesn't pan out for Manziel, maybe he and Tim Tebow could star in an Odd Couple reality show. Maybe one week Tebow could bring Manziel to church on Sunday morning and the next week Manziel could bring Tebow to a club until 4 AM and have a drunken orgy with a Swedish women's volleyball team. We can call the show Holy and Horny: The Heisman Homies.